|A VIRTUAL PARTY|
"It seems to me unarguable that if we put between us and the biggest free market in the world new tariffs, new regulatory barriers, new customs procedures, certificates of origin and so on, we are bound to be weakening the economic position from what it would otherwise have been, other things being equal, in future." Ken Clarke MP
The REMAIN party cannot fund candidates for election. Consequently MPs and others can be members of their own party AND the REMAIN party at the same time.
Our primary purpose is to persuade the House of Commons that reversing Article 50 is in the best interest of the UK. This means supporting calls for a people's vote. The support in the electorate is greater for Remain than that for Leave, (see here) so a second referendum is very likely to reverse the previous result which is why Leavers do not want one.
There is some support within all parties (except UKIP and the Unionists in Northern Ireland) for dumping Article 50. 75% of MPs were openly in favour of remain prior to June 2016, and since then there has only been minimal change in House of Commons. Our purpose is to persuade.
The economic, cultural, trading and
free-movement arguments are well known. The reason why there is a
broad support in government for Brexit is precisely the referendum. MPs are
unwilling to undermine a democratic vote because it calls into question
legitimacy of their own position and could create a crisis in democracy. However
they realise that, firstly, the citizens, the residents and the
electorate of the country no longer support Brexit, that is persuasive.
Secondly, if their own rejection of Brexit is likely to give them more
votes in the next election, that too is persuasive.
These can both be demonstrated.
YouGov/The Times have conducted more than 70 polls since the referendum asking the same question:
'In hindsight do you think it right that the UK voted to leave the EU?'
The UK preference has moved solidly from Leave to Remain.
Adjusted YouGov figures showing preference for Leave or Remain
Adjusted to (a) reflect whole of UK+ Gibraltar, YouGov do not sample from Northern Ireland or Gibraltar, and (b) convert to true majority figures for equivalent comparison with the referendum 3.8% majority for Leave.
The regression line is 3rd order polynomial. Blue lines are YouGov raw data, Red lines are adjusted as described.
At the referendum the majority for Leave was 3.8%. Now the majority for Remain is approaching 8%. None of the last 36 polls (in the last 12 months) has shown a preference for Leave.
(see here for more detail on the calculations and data source)
The MPs who voted against Article 50 were, Conservative: Kenneth Clarke, Labour (52 members), Liberal Democrats, Green, Plaid Cymru, SNP.At the election Labour increased its share of the vote from 2015 by 9.5%. Conservatives increased their share of the vote by about 5.5%. It gave Labour 12.9 million votes and the Conservatives 13.6 million.
However in constituencies where the Labour MP had voted against Article 50, on average the Labour share of the vote increased by 14.3% and the Conservative share of the vote only increased by 1%. It suggests that had the Labour party as a whole supported Remain, the figures would have given Labour a majority over the Conservatives of something like 50 seats. Together with the SNP and PC there would have been a majority of over 100 for dumping Brexit.
For the above reasons we want to persuade the Labour Party to reverse its position on Article 50 and seek a vote on the final outcome.