|A SECOND REFERENDUM - A DEMOCRATIC RIGHT|
The most fundamental right of democracy is that a country has the right to change its mind. And the UK has changed its mind.
|Demographic change since June 2016||In the months since the referendum the demographics of the country have changed. Every year about 1.5 million new 18-year olds are eligible to be on the electoral register and a similar number of elderly citizens leave the register. The difference in vote between the elderly and the young was stark. The effect - about 153,000 more remain voters and 238,000 less leave voters per year. Overall - nearly 400,000 more for remain.|
|Mind change since June 2016||Changing minds is really
difficult when people have put the cross on the ballot paper,
however the story is that, initially, about 10% of remain voters
accepted the outcome as democratic and felt we should leave.
However having seen the consequences some of those are reversing
their decision, and going back to a remain preference, (red line
Leave voters stuck with their decision for nearly a year, but are now jumping ship faster and faster every day (blue line bleow).
Blue dots and blue line - Leave voters sticking with their decision, red dots and red line - Remain voters sticking with their decision
Note that the change started happening at the general election in 2017.
Data from YouGov - see here for sources. Regression lines are 5th order polynomial
MPs position since 2016
The MPs who voted against Article 50 were, Conservative: Kenneth Clarke, Labour (52 members), Liberal Democrats, Green, Plaid Cymru, SNP.At the election Labour increased its share of the vote from 2015 by 9.5%. Conservatives increased their share of the vote by about 5.5%. It gave Labour 12.9 million votes and the Conservatives 13.6 million.
However in constituencies where the Labour MP had voted against Article 50, on average the Labour share of the vote increased by 14.3% and the Conservative share of the vote only increased by 1%. It suggests that had the Labour party as a whole supported Remain, or at least a second referendum, the figures would have given Labour a majority over the Conservatives of something like 50 seats. Together with the SNP and PC there would have been a majority of over 100 for dumping Brexit.
For the above reasons we want to persuade the Labour Party to reverse its position on Article 50 or, at least, seek a second referendum.